Breaking Dawn: What to Expect from Box Office Numbers: Lookout New Moon Record!

It’s a special kind of hilarious to see various mainstream critics stating that Breaking Dawn isn’t as good of a movie as its predecessors. I love Catherine Hardwicke as much as the next person, but trying to say that Twilight’s low budget blue wash, Maybeline make up, and wonky hand-held camera angles as Edward drags Bella up a mountain in the rain are better than Bill Condon’s cinematic Breaking Dawn…it’s just not dealing in reality, at least not in my reality having seen the film twice.

Here is why Breaking Dawn is going to do well…really well at the box office.

1. The best “must be seen in the theater again” scenes since Twilight. When it comes to romantic moments, Twilight had the car ride, the dance, the longing looks. Despite New Moon’s vastly improved production values, New Moon was a lot of no Edward and an unsatisfying reunion when he did finally come back. Eclipse was lots of action and CGI. Granted we had the proposal, and the leg hitch, but a lot of the romantic soul wasn’t there. The birth not withstanding, Breaking Dawn has wedding and honeymoon that fans are going to want to see again and again and again.

2. Relatively speaking there is no competition at the box office. What are we going to do, see the Happy Feet 3D instead? Granted the Immortals with Kellan Lutz is playing, but it’s no more of a threat than Jackson Rathbone’s The Last Airbender was with Eclipse the last time out.

3. It’s November. Don’t get me wrong, Eclipse did really well with it’s June release. It was the most successful in the franchise movie yet, but in the summer there are a lot of choices when it comes to entertainment, and I don’t just mean the movies. The Eclipse total probably would have even been higher if it had been a fall movie. We are in November where the beach, family vacations, kids out of school, etc aren’t distracting us. Breaking Dawn will rule in a November environment.

4. According to The Wrap, Breaking Dawn is on target to take out the New Moon total and a possible Harry Potter total.

“Breaking Dawn’s” projections fall short of the $169 million all-time record set by “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2” last summer, but should be roughly in line with the franchise’s highest grossing opener, the $140 million posted by 2009’s “New Moon.”

The studio is feeling more conservative, projecting an opening weekend on the order of $125 million.

Summit did not release the number of theaters that plan to host midnight screenings, but studio executives told TheWrap that the movie may be a 12 a.m. record breaker.

It could easily surpass the $43.5 million benchmark set by “Deathly Hallows Part 2” in late night showings.”

So what are we going to predict in all of this? Here’s where our guess is (and let’s see how close we are when the numbers all close):

1. Breaking Dawn will overtake Eclipse’s top single day and opening day gross records to put it number 3 on the all time record list right behind Harry Potter’s final installment and New Moon.

2. It will end its run as the number three movie of the year behind Transformers and Harry Potter

3. It will break the $300,000,000 mark set by Eclipse

Early numbers will come out over the weekend, but the really, really solid stuff will be in Monday afternoon. Let the games begin!

Comments

  1. Joshua L. Roberts says:

    Despite the rash of negative reviews from critics (no surprise there), I’m sure Breaking Dawn will be a shew in success. As mentioned, it doesn’t have any compeition this weekend, and as it is the beginning of the end for the Twilight Saga movies, people will be coming to see it, just for that. I know several of my friends of whom sort of fell out of the fandom are going to go see it, just because of that. So in truth, Breaking Dawn has everything going for it this weekend…

    Here’s to werewolves and vampires ruling this weekend! WOOT

    I will probably go see it Wednesday when all of the opening fuss is over with.

  2. I think the harsh review will affect it,sure it will do well opening day and weekend but it will DROP OF FAST.I doubt if it will cross 300m,people might only see it once

    if the movie gets bad reviews it is for a legtitmate reasons,TWILIGHT overall is not a good series,it is a chick flick at best. Harry Potter (as you mentioned) is vastly SUPERIOR to twilight in every aspect,the fact that twilight gets low reviews shows the shallownes and supeficulity of the story.

    Harry Potter had haters but even the haters could not deny the the genuis of JK ROLWING, Harry Potter like Star Wars and Lord of the Rings had the QUANTITIY (box office) and the QUALITY ( high criticial reception)

    TWILIGHT ONLY HAS THE QUANITITY.

    • if you feel that way why the hell are you here?? this is a fan site and you are clearly not a fan!!

      • I agree! If you don’t like Twilight please don’t waste your time and energy on a fan site, find something you do like and live a more positive life.

    • Joshua L. Roberts says:

      Lucy if harsh reviews would have hurt the Twilight Saga it would have never made the money it did. Not one of the movies received critical praise or reviews, and yet despite these set backs, the series maintained its footing. That is not to say that Twilight fans aren’t benign to the movie adaptations sometimes awkward, sometimes awful meanderings, but that doesn’t matter. They support it because it is a part of the franchise they love.

      Bad reviews impact games… they don’t impact movies.

      Remember 2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was the worst movie of the year, and pretty close to becoming the worst movie in existence, and yet it was also one of the hightest grossing movies of that year, save for Avatar…

      • Amen Joshua!!!

      • SPEAK ON, MAN!

        you think by now people would get that we do not give a flying flip what the critics think!! this is OUR series and OUR movies!!!

        • Victoria Cullen Chmiel says:

          Twihards think that all the Twilight movies are the best things in the world and are awesome. Critics give these films golden razzies and call them terrible. Yet all the movies are EXTREMELY high grossing and succesful in the box office. I love all the movies and all the kstew haters out there, kristen is not a turd. she fiits the role of bella perfectly because they are BOTH awkward. I <3 TWILIGHT

          • Joshua L. Roberts says:

            I don’t think that all Twihards think the Twilight movies are the greatest things in the world. I think we are more than aware of their shortcomings and such, but that doesn’t stop us from enjoying them… just like it doesn’t stop Star Wars fans from purchasing… and repurchasing…and seeing Episodes 1,2, and 3 over and over again, and these films barely qualified as entertainment.

            You watch what you like… no less…no more…

    • Awesome Lucy, and heck no will anyone who is not a TWI-HARD not make comments please get out of the delusion it was luck the writer made it, and bad writing will eventually be proven. SM won a sort of lottery she is a awful writer

    • I totally agree :)

  3. Well, I can speak for myself I will be part of the numbers for sure. I have tickets already for Friday night AND for Tuesday. Can not wait to see it. And I think Lucy is wrong because I do see it being the best of the series because I see it as going out with a bang. Just as I think next year will totally gross more money since it will truly be the last one of the series. No one is going to say that they missed it. Us fans are not fazed with the remarks. We know it will break numbers and make records.

  4. I’m curious, etch movie have their own syle, but in my head there is other pictures and more the story…in one long…loving and I have no words, I do hope people find some of this magic in their loving person !!! <3 But I say film is so difficult and so…film! I'm curious! <3 Love the magic!

  5. Twilight has it’s charm, but I’m wishing it could be remade with some changes to the script the bigger budget.

  6. Midnight will be my first Twilight movie (in theaters) ever. I only started watching/reading in March of this year. I could care less what the critics think. I just want to see for myself how the book is portrayed on screen.

  7. Stephenie Meyer dialogue.
    “So you lambs (TWI-HARDS) fell again for my vision, I must be a strong masochistic lion.”

    Oh yeah I so went there, just saw BREAKING DAWN now I get why Summit did trailer after trailer this movie sucked, stilted dialogue, weird scenes, the freaking wolves and their weird wolf talk, so stupid, the books was fan fiction either Steyer rushed it because she had a deadline or she said “I have enough money to live a happy life.” That is not he way a writer should be, giving up on a series because she was bored of vamps, it showed in the books and it showed in the movie, and TWI-HARDS slept on the street for this lady, shame, shame on you, she would never love you so much to do that, why didn’t they volunteer at a shelter, give to the needy. She wrote to pay for a vehicle and that is why Bella (Stephenie Meyer) had a crap vehicle, she stole from Anne Rice, L.J Smith and so many others, that is disgusting, and THE HOST don’t get me started on that long ass book, with no plot, no conflict, just wrapped up nice, stop shoving Mormon values in fiction, people deserve choice. I don’t give a damn who gets mad, Twilight Franchise will never be like Harry Potter it will fade away in no time splitting the book was pure greed.

    • I don’t really understand where you are coming from with some of your remarks but you are entitled to your opinion and no one should get mad at you for it. However, I have to wonder why you would make it on a FAN site. I do not generally view the fan pages for things I don’t like, let alone comment on them.

      • Because these people have painfully low self-esteem and like to inflict harm on others to build themselves up. I personally don’t spend a second of my time on things I don’t like. I’m not over on a Khardasian website bashing the girls, no matter how ridiculous I may find their celebrity. It’s called being mature and not taking joy in making others upset. It’s actually very valuable lesson to learn and I hope the younger Twilight fans who visit this site will learn from what NOT to do. Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t like what you like and love what you love regardless of others cruelty.

  8. I bought a advance ticket to see the first showing tomorrow. I definitely think breaking dawn is going to be the best one yet.

  9. Dereama Ann Jackson says:

    Just got back from seeing Breaking Dawn. It seems the reviews are mixed. I loved it for the most part. It does feel like a different movie but we new it would be given the book, the director & a bigger budget. I’m a huge fan of the books & know that they are always better than the movies (even Harry Potter). I never like what the critics like anyway so I never listen to them. There are always things I want to see that don’t make it. I wanted to see some ‘blond’ jokes & maybe the dog dish (made or thrown). I wanted more Seth. Character development was a bit off from the other movies but I thought the acting was better by all. Kristin was awesome! The CGI wolves were better in New Moon & I didn’t like them talking (could have found a better way). For all the hype I thought the honeymoon/birth scenes were pretty short. Good but short. I didn’t like ‘Twilight’ the first time I saw it either but it’s my favorite so far (I like the ‘indy’ feel of it). All are a bit on the cheesy side but that makes them charming. Breaking Dawn is my favorite book & they did get quite a bit in this one all things considered. As a TwiMom, I give it 2 very big thumbs up! But then I would have been happy with a ‘movie of the week’.

  10. This movie is in serious trouble if the fans are hating it this much. I knew after reading the “spoiler free review” last week that something was wrong and the reviewer was reaching. In the past we did not care what the critics said because we liked the movies but if the FANS are saying it is bad then the movie is in serious trouble. The problem is Melissa Rosenberg. She should have been removed after Twilight. She has single handly ruin this series. I am glad they are coming to a end. I have had enough of the bad special effects, direction, acting, writing and it has become embarrassing. After next year let it be over with for good. Please SM no Jacob and Renesmee movie. Enough is enough.

  11. Guess what troll? I read all the Harry Potter books, every single one of them and i like Twilight way better. I have never cared for the HP movies either. They are boring to me. Why do you HP lovers come to the Twilight fansites to trash the books and movies. You keep saying that HP is superior to Twilight but it seems like you are trying to convince yourself of that. HP fans are so threaten by Twilight. You should be because if Twilight had a good screenwriter, and some good actors and a good director and had been able to pull in a bigger fanbase, we would blow HP out of the water.

    • (I cannot believe you had the nerve to write this) You should be because if Twilight had a good screenwriter, and some good actors and a good director and had been able to pull in a bigger fanbase, we would blow HP out of the water.

      GE vans get over your immature self unless your a preteen then your response is accurate to the author fan base, moving along stay with me I will be using big words that is not in the steyer books, and there is a plot to my post, as well not in steyer books.

      Don’t blame Melissa, she did a great job working with mush, Stephenie Meyer is a awful writer (repeat this to the amount of money she made) and you all know that but won’t admit it, you are the troll that is still under the heavy haze that the author put you under, she lucked out and she is probably still surprised she has a income, she will never be a contender for Harry Potter series, and its not jealousy TWILIGHT copied Harry Potter the promotion, splitting the books, the only thing similar is that the fan base, grow up and see the books and movies for what is is a light entertainment that made money when the hype allowed it and has fizzled the actors know that too, but they have to do there jobs and promote it, its a silly premise and Anne Rice was right when she said it, Edward was never mentioned in the three books being capable of procreating, why was that fate given to Bella and not the other female characters, which reinforces the truth the writer based the character Bella on herself writing is about risk, and the series was written for Mormon teens, so in that case it was a perfect ending have kids, bow down to your spouse and have no life. I will no longer comment on this mush, each time I come to this worthless sight. Last nail in the Twilight coffin yes pun intended HARRY POTTER is about a boy that will risk his life for those he cares about, TWILIGHT is about um, like I so want a beautiful sparkly boyfriend to have intercourse with me and hurt me in the process.

      • Wow! Chill out Megan! You’re going to hurt yourself. Really? I mean really? a little overtly excited about it? Don’t you have a Harry Potter site to go moon over. LOL.

  12. First sweetie i am not a preteen ok. I am a much much older Twilight fan. You can RANT all you want but the truth is that you HATERS are always coming on here trashing Twlight. You are threaten. That is a fact. Here is something for you to chew on. My husband is a 57 year old African American man. He is a construction foreman and has been in that business for 35 years and knows nothing about Twilight. He knows nothing about the books or my interest in them or the movies. So when Twilight came on a few weeks ago he sat with me and watch it. He really enjoyed it and even made a few nice comments about some of the scenes and actors. He did not have one negative thing to say about the movie. The point is that this is someone who is completely outside the demographics and who really had never even heard of Twilight and would never watch it but really enjoyed the movie. When i told him about STUPID people like you who are always trashing the author and the movies, he ask me why. He said it was a ok movie and he enjoyed watching it with me. So you and your cronies can crawl up out of here because you are nothing but bitter and jealous of SM. I hope she continues to write and make millions just to upset you.

    • Your an idiot like the author chew on that, who cares if your husband is black what does that have to do with anything, why am I surprised, when I read the books I asked myself the same questions. Get a life GE vans. Sweetie is patronizing yu are a preteen.If you read BREAKING DAWN a racist book, why are the black vampires not described as beautiful the Mormon belief is that black people are the creation from the devil, you don’t get it people are seeing the author what she is a ploy to brain wash gullible young girls BREAKING DAWN teaches so many bad messages.

      TEAM HARRY POTTER TEAM ANNE RICE TEAM L.J SMITH (SM totally stole from her) TEAM any writer that can write.

  13. You are a NUT. Breaking Dawn racist? The point is that my husband is outside the demographics and he like the movies. He had never heard of them but he thought the movie was decent which goes to show that the movie is not that bad to some. You are on here trashing the author for no reason. You dont have to read or even like her books or watch the movies. It does not mean you are RIGHT. That is your opinion. There are a lot of things i dont like but i dont carry on about it like some kind of maniac.You are trashing a young woman for nothing. Why? Because she had her books published and people purchase them and like them? That does not make her evil or calculating. She just wrote some books like hundeds of authors do everyday. Now you are on here screaming Team Anne Rice, Team Harry Potter. IT IS NOT THAT SERIOUS. You sound like you are unstable. Who cares? They are just books. They are just fiction. They are just movies. You are ranting and raving about SM stealing from other authors and about black vampires and about Mormons. Are you kidding me? You do realize this stuff is not real dont you? Brainwashing? You need to get out of your parents basement and join the real world SWEETIE.

    • I will never understand people’s need to compare. So many books have been written, and we could spend years comparing how they are alike and different. What difference does it make? They all have fans and they all have people who dislike them. I personally have enjoyed books by Rice and loved the whole HP series and Twilight. Imagine that, a fan of all three. To hear some people tell it, that’s an impossibility. I read a bit of LJ Smith, and didn’t care for it, but that’s just my opinion. I’m not going to go find a forum for her fans and start ranting at them. And I don’t get the part about racism either. Nor am I pre-teen. I’m 32.

      • Amen. I just finished Divergent by Roth and it is set in a dystopic future. OH NO IT MUST BE A HUNGER GAMES RIP OFF!!! Kidding. No yelling necessary. It’s ridiculous. (But Divergent is really good too!)
        I enjoyed the movie (I’ve seen it twice now). I thought it was slow, but not in a bad way. It sets a simmer. I didn’t mind the wolf scene everyone is talking about. I understood why it was done the way they did it. It wouldn’t have been my choice, but I’m not sure how else it could have been done either.
        I’m not a fan of the Vampire Diaries, which I read before Twilight, but I certainly do not need to go find a place to bash. How childish and silly.
        I like Anne Rice and HP too. Maybe you have to be over 16 to be able to split your likes that way. No, that isn’t fair, I know a LOT of very mature teens who like all of the above mentioned and it doesn’t seem to send them off the deep end, unlike our poor dear friend Megan. Seriously, such anger in someone is very off-putting.

    • I agree with Megan, on some points I do not take the books serious nothing is original, in regards to books, there are inspiration in many books I read and I am a huge reader, Idon’t thinki she’s thrashing the author, when someone writes white skin, beautiful white on white that is disgusting, it is racism Mormons are racist deal with it, I don’t care, make peace everyone no war over fiction.

      • I wonder if my African American Mormon neighbor is aware of that fact. If not, she’s in for one heck of a surprise. I’d hate to be the one to tell her.
        Seriously… if you don’t like the books, the movies, the way RPatz combs his hair etc. great. You are entitled to your opinion. But to defame someone because you are trying to get attention, for whatever reason, is just wrong.
        Let’s talk about original… there are Romeo and Juliet aspects to Twilight, but I don’t see anyone screaming about Meyer ripping of Shakespeare (or the thousands of other authors who write about star-crossed lovers). There are aspects of Greek tragedy in HP but I don’t see anyone quoting Antigone and I seriously doubt that Sophocles is all that upset. In other words, relax. Like what you like and love what you love but there is zero need to tear someone down just to build yourself up. If Schadenfreude is what you need, well, then I pity you and I hope you find a different source for your joy.

  14. Ha, correcting me on punctuation when the series is riddled with errors proves my point, you’re all losers you cannot ban me on this site the world is catching on to the travesty of the filth call TWILIGHT, the writer had a wet dream that shouldn’t have been published, no one expected her to sell but Mormon community is huge, she utilized her religion to poison all you losers wake up, and see the truth, she has manipulated so many young girls about the value of looking pretty, skinny and worshipping men. Disgusting GEvans et al bite me.

    • You are a sick person. You should be in the same cell with the nut who tried to take out the US President.

    • Megan – I don’t want to see you banned. I want you to get help. I mean there are people who troll. And then, there are people like you. I strongly question your mental stability. You poor sad child.
      The grammar point is that it isn’t wise to call other people idiots when you don’t who to use contractions and it is what we like to call ironic. Look it up.

    • Twilight_News says:

      WHY HELLO THERE MEGHAN< SIERRA< AND LISA. You’re also Keisha on another thread. Seriously, trolling is pathetic and even more pathetic when you make up sock puppets to talk to yourself. Whatever point you might have made is rendered invalid when you make up multiple identities to get it across.

  15. Ok peeps, I don’t usually comment on these things but felt moved to by the bad vibe coming at me from this ‘discussion’. Stephanie Meyer may not be a ‘good’ writer to some, but I like her work. The films may not to be everyones taste and I have my own issues with them, but fundamentally they entertain me. Edward, Bella and Jacob are not perfect, neither are Rob, Kristen or Taylor but I love the characters and I think the actors do a reasonable job in portraying them.

    The reason that I don’t think the books translate perfectly into film, is because they written in the perspective of an individual, whether that be Bella or Jacob and that can not be easy for anyone to translate. However I beleive the fundamentals are there. I have seen BD Pt 1 rwice and loved it both times. I didn’t analyse the special effects, or critique the music, I get lost in a visual interpretation of the story I love and if that makes me shallow or’sad’ then so be it, I really don’t care. This is just entertainment, nothing more. For example: you either like reality TV or you don’t. Personally I hate it, so never watch it, but I don’t ridicule the thousands that do or call them ‘stupid’ or ‘lambish’.

    These are works of fiction, no-one is expected to take away any ‘values’ from them. Parents and education should give you your values, not a movie or fictional novel. This is not real life. It is just entertainment. Compare it to other entertainment if you must. I like Harry Potter and love Lord of the Rings but I don’t compare them because they’re different stories. So to me, caomparing Harry Potter to Twilight is counter productive because the stories are completely different as are the realtionships. But in the end it is all just entertainment. I personally don’t care how well BD pt 1 does at the box office because pt 2 is already on it’s way and they have to release it anyway to make some money back on it. So I will get what I want as a fan of the books and movies.

    If you enjoy things, that’s great, if you don’t than that’s fine too. But to get so heated and release such venom ‘pardon the pun’ over something that is down to personal preference to me is irrational.

    Have a great day!

    Lanie xx

  16. I am truly astonished by the venom being spouted by some posters. I am neither a teenager nor a lamb but I truly enjoyed reading this series, beginning to end. One of the aspects of this series’ phenomenon is that the reader is sucked into the story and doesn’t notice the quality of the writing. SM wrote a story that is engrossing enough for me to completely disregard spelling, grammatical, and punctuation errors riddled throughout the first book. I am a voracious reader and have been for many years. For the story to engage me enough to not notice the errors is astonishing. I only noticed them when I later reread the book. On a reread however they tend to pull me out of the story so to combat this I listen to the audio book version of Twilight rather than read the actual book so they don’t diminish my enjoyment of the story. I have heard many writers spew about the atrocious writing, how they would be ashamed to have written these stories. As a writer myself, I call BS. If I had been SM, I might blush a little cashing that fat check but I would still cash it. I say that she is a great storyteller, but her editor should have caught the errors. Shame on them, that’s what editors are for.
    I would love for something I wrote to be enjoyed by so many. Detractors of the series can vent all they want about the stories and movies but it is hard to argue with the success of both the books and the movies.
    On the topic of the movie, I went to see the marathon culminating with the midnight showing of BD part 1. The crowd was a mix of couples and groups. I would estimate that 30% were male. As I am very curious about why people like or dislike (read love or hate) this series, I listened to the comments of the people exiting the final movie. With a few notable exceptions, the audience loved BD part 1 and bemoaned the fact that they now had to wait a year for part 2. Many stated their intentions of seeing the movie again before the end of Thanksgiving week. I know that I didn’t walk away dissatisfied. The critics can say what they want, I rarely agree with them so I don’t listen and judge for myself.
    To the posters who are bashing the series, why, other than a malicious enjoyment of trying to deride others for what they like, would you come to a site for fans and post such comments? Do you honestly believe you are going to change their minds? I doubt it. More likely you feel the need to create discord to boost your ego and then pat yourself on the back for trying to educate the “idiots”. I find that very sad.

    • You are so right. The first time I read the series I was so incredibly dissolved within the story. I never even realized it wasn’t written that well until I started talking to other people about it, and then I couldn’t figure out what they were talking about. I ended up having to reread the books to realize what eveyone was saying. But the fact of the matter is that the story is so incredibly awesome you can’t help to be pulled in. I don’t read books to critique the writing, the style, the errors, etc. I read to be taken away from reality, to escape my own problems, and submerge myself in a world that is not my own. Not very often do books take me away like SM’s books have, and when it does happen it is something that I can truly and fully appreciate.

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