Films Struggle in the 2009 Ecomony

The Wall Street Journal has a piece on how indie movies are finding it really tough going in these economic times.

“For years, distributors in such markets as France, Germany, Japan and Latin American nations at times would pay millions of dollars for the rights to distribute American movies, like last autumn’s teen hit “Twilight” from Summit Entertainment and indie sensation “The Wrestler.”

In the 1990s, those sums frequently would cover a film’s entire budget. In more recent years, it would cover a significant amount and, with a portion of their budgets in hand, producers could more easily secure loans or equity for the rest of their financing.

The rise of copyright piracy and increasing competition from local films have held a lid on presales of foreign rights in recent years. But since the credit crunch hit Wall Street and expanded across the globe, producers say they feel lucky if presales cover half of their budgets — if anything at all.”

The LA Times lets readers know that it’s not just indie films that are struggling. Marketing dollars that used to be easily spent are now coming under bigger scrutiny.  They don’t want to cut marketing dollars, but where to spend them is like looking into a crystal ball. TV advertising remains key, and fortunately may be getting a little cheaper:

“There will be a natural savings because the election is over, and a lot of giant buyers just aren’t there,” said Rob Friedman, chief executive of Summit Entertainment, which produced last year’s hit “Twilight.” “That will translate into lower rate cards and create a better marketplace for media buyers.”

Taking all of this in consideration, the Examiner is betting that New Moon will be the number one movie at the box office in 2009. It has some serious competition from summer blockbusters Harry Potter, Transformers 2, and the kids’ movie Where the Wild things Are.

What do you think, will New Moon end up in the number 1 position at the end of the year?

Comments

  1. While I can’t wait for November 20th, and I know I’ll be seeing several screenings of NM, sorry, but it won’t be the #1 film of 2009. Definitely Top 10, Maybe Top 5, but not number one. Sorry.

  2. Twilight Nymph says:

    Who knows I mean I wish it could be, but then again it is competing with other big franchises so I’m going with I don’t know.

  3. OME!! YA Of COURSE IT WILL BE! I’m sorry to all you Harry Potter fans, but I think that that is kind of over! NM will be hugee

    • Um… Harry Potter over??? Ok the last book came out in July 2007. Breaking Dawn (Twilight saga’s last book!) came out August 2008… So that’s one year difference. Now, we are expecting 2 more Twilight movies, hopefully 3. There are 3 HP movies left. Eclipse is due in 2010, and the last HP movie is due in 2011… The HP fansites are just as active as ever, plus I don’t remember hearing anywhere that they are building a Twilight World in Universal Studios!

      Don’t take it the wrong way, but HP over? Far from true! I am addicted to both series, I’m looking forward to all the movies, and to say that HP is over, you have not done your research. Just check out the Box Office numbers for both franchise and get back to me about that!

      Anyways, why the competition. Two DIFFERENT book series, DIFFERENT demographics… who cares really, as long as both movies are great.

  4. TeamCullen says:

    It doesn’t matter – New Moon will definitely be MY number 1…

  5. It won’t be number 1. Up there, but definitely not #1. I’ll be interested to see where it falls in comparison to Harry Potter, though. I love Twilight, but I feel like my previous 8 years of love for Harry mean that I have to root for Half Blood Prince. Still, good luck to Twilight. I’d absolutely love a tie between Harry and Edward.

  6. BooksRCrazy says:

    I don’t think New Moon will be the number 1 movie of 2009, but it will for sure be in the top 5. Does it really matter if its the number 1 movie? As long as it does enough money for there to be a Eclipse and Breaking Dawn movies, then Im good ;)

  7. HowlingJuanjo says:

    Oh, definitely! Harry’s great, but I think New Moon’s got that 09 top movie title.

  8. Well… I would LOVE for NM to do very well. But, I have to say that long before Twilight came around, Harry Potter was my literary love. That being said, I know that some of the HP movies have been complete crap. So I think it will depend on how well they translate each book to the big screen.

    But…as Emily says, Harry is kind of over. It will be interesting to see. But I will be there for both HP and NM opening night :)

  9. Absolutely can not wait for the Harry
    Potter movie to come out. But i will also be first in line to see New Moon. Love them both,this is going to be the best year for movie’s, for me anyways! And trust me, Harry is not so over, can’t we love them both?

    • I’m a total die hard Edward fan, but in this case “Team Switzerland all the way”.
      Since Harry Potter is coming to it’s end, I’m a little more crazy than the past, about HP movies and books. But like mama, my fiancee and I, will be first in line to see New Moon. We will probably be seeing more than 3x to. But, I would probably wait for HP to come out on DVD b4 I watch it again.

      However, I’m not looking forward to Twilight’s end. I’m frightened about it already, like how Bella dreaded getting older every second and minute(I’m so lame). What happens after Twilight?

  10. Twifanatic Amanda says:

    It would be simply amazing if New Moon was number one but I very much doubt it will be.

  11. i love new moon and the whole franchise, i wish it would be number one, but considering that harry potter has been so big for so long, and the half blood prince looks like it will be the best movie made yet in the series….im going to say
    1. half-blood prince
    2. new moon
    but it will be a close race, i could be wrong.
    they both desreve the top spot.

  12. New Moon will make box office cash, no doubt, especially opening weekend, but it’s the long run that will test the market of this franchise. Twilight had a fantastic money making run, but that didn’t make a good movie. It had it’s moments, but on a whole it doesn’t have the long run watchability of other movies.
    It’s a challenging market out there even though box offices number are up from last year. Personally I hope more people will look to the independent studios like Summit, Rogue and Magnolia because they’re putting out quality films, which are worth seeking out.

  13. I love New Moon and can’t wait to see it as a movie, but as much as I want to say it’ll win in the box office I don’t think I can. Harry Potter is a hard act to beat, it’s been around longer and has a larger fan base as far as I can see because it caters to a larger demographic.

    The attention to detail in the Harry Potter movies has gotten worse and worse since the 2nd one. I understand they need to keep the movie in a certain time frame but still…they’ve skipped out on a lot of things in the past. I know people who have been debating weather or not to even see it at the theater because they don’t want to come out disappointed and feel they wasted their money.

    I think it will be a close call between Harry Potter and New Moon for number one.

  14. Twilight’s great, but it can in no way compare to Harry Potter. I’m thinking HP6 will get the #1 spot (and rightfully so!).
    Though I am so excited for New Moon, it’s my favorite in the series! Lots of Team Jacob and Team Werewolf action. :D

  15. Also, I don’t think Harry Potter is at all over. That series has already been around for 12 years, and it’s still more popular than Twilight, which is just seeing its fourth year. I love Twilight, but Harry Potter is the love of my life, and I believe that it will reach true classic status, whereas Twilight will become more of a nostalgic and loving look back at the ’00s (no offense to Team Twilighters).

  16. I am %100 positive that New Moon will be #1

    Ive never been a Harry Potter fan, so I won’t be seeing that, or any of the other competing movies.

    I’ll probably see New Moon 3-6 times.
    It’s my favourite book, and I’m hoping it’ll be my favourite movie.. ever.
    So far, from the little 5 second clips that I’ve seen, it will live up to my expectations.

    ~ New Moon #1 for 2009… Hell yeah

  17. Some of the hype and anticipation for wanting to see a Harry Potter movie,has kind of died down. Harry didn’t have any competition five years ago and then Twilight came out of nowhere and took 90 percent of the publicity away. When they started playing hopscotch with the release date for Half-Blood Prince it made alot of people upset and I was looking forward to see both HP and Twilight go head to head last fall. I think Warner Bros. hopes that moving the release date in the Batman slot from last year,will gain the same revenue.

    It would be cool to see New Moon be the number one movie of ’09,but Half-Blood Prince comes out four months before it. So it would have a good head at the box office and New Moon unfortuneatly wouldn’t make $4 or 500 million in time to beat HP. Still,I’m looking forward to seeing New Moon and I can’t wait to see how it matches the second novel.

  18. As much as i love the twilight books and the film i think it’ll be hard to beat Harry Potter or Transformers 2 since i feel that that Transformers especuially has a bigger demographic than twilight.

    It all depends on the quality of the film though.
    But i am very excited to see Transformers 2, New Moon and Half Blood Prince. I’m still smarting that it’s taken this long for HBP to come out though, especially since they’re already filming the next film. Okay annoyedness over now.

    • Ah! I didn’t see your post! Lol. I’m glad someone finally mentioned Transformers!!! I cannot wait for that movie either. :)

  19. As much as I hope New Moon will be the number one movie of 2009, I kinda doubt it. Everyones talking about Harry Potter and I agree somehwhat with what they say, what about Transformers 2 though? I would like to think Transformers has a bigger fanbase than Harry Potter and Twilight. I know not every person likes Transformers, but I can guess that there is quite a large fanbase. I can only guess though.

    Out of all those movies, I will be there for New Moon’s opening night and I will see that movie ALOT. :) That’s a fact. I just want it to do well. That’s all that matters to me.

  20. New Moon ‘Halted Over Lawsuit’
    20 April 2009 5:04 AM, PDT

    Twilight sequel New Moon has been thrown into jeopardy – author Stephenie Meyer is facing a plagiarism lawsuit over the vampire franchise, according to reports.

    The original 2008 movie – starring Robert Pattinson – was a major international hit and has spawned a follow-up which is currently being shot in Canada. The film franchise is based on the popular book series, written by Meyer.

    But production on the second film has reportedly been halted following claims Meyer is facing legal action from her former college roommate, who is said to have accused the writer of basing the novels on her ideas.

    According to I’mnotobsessed.com, Heidi Stanton – who studied alongside Meyer at Brigham Young University, Utah – claims the vampire books are similar to a short story she wrote when she was a student there.

    Stanton filed her lawsuit against Meyer in Utah last Tuesday, alleging idea infringement.

    She states in the papers, “Quite frankly, I was shocked when I began watching the movie with my husband last week. I immediately told him that she got that idea from me! I wrote a fictional short story with the same ideas when we were in college together.”

    Meyer claims the premise for the popular series came to her in a dream in June 2003 and she completed the first novel three months later.

    And the legal battle has reportedly cast doubt on the highly-anticipated New Moon, with production being “put on hold” until the case is resolved, according to the website.

    New Moon is scheduled for release at the end of the year.

  21. only if the fans make it that way. Hope its good!

  22. I’m sorry but NM has no chance of reaching Harry Potter. To all who have commented that HP is over, you have not done your homework! I’m a huge fan of both series, and the HP fandom is as vibrant and alive as ever. If you look at numbers:

    The US Gross for HP has been anywhere from $260 million to $317 million. Twilight had a US Gross of $191 million… NM might make more than Twilight if it’s a good film, but for some reason (I might be wrong) I doubt it’ll reach HP. As for Worldwide Gross? NO CHANCE! Twilight made $382 million and the lowest grossing HP made almost $800 million (highest $976 million)!!! The only spot Twilight might surpass HP in is the 1st weekend numbers… Twilight’s first weekend was at almost $70 million, and the lowest 1st weekend gross for HP was $77 million…

    The battle between Twilight and HP is to me so silly! They are both great series but they reach such different demographics, HP reaching more people than Twilight. For example, my husband, my father and most of my guy friends will not go see NM, but will definitely go see HP. As for me and most of my girlfriends, we’ll be going to both. Have any of you seen the most recent trailer for HP? It looks unbelievably promising, and will reach much more of an audience than any HP movie before. So no, I do not believe that Harry Potter is over. Please just check your facts, the fansites are just as active as 2 years ago.

    I think that NM looks very promising as well, and I’m sure it’ll be in the top 10 of 2009, no question about it, but it has got so much competition! Let’s not get carried away by our love for the Twilight saga, and see things for what they are. Those journalists that wrote the article are seriously delusional and have not done their box office homework.

    • Wow, thanks for in the insight. Comparing those numbers really do put things into perspective.

    • Rachel A. says:

      Well said, I agree with you totally. The numbers speak for themselves.

      I would add that in my opinion, the Harry Potter films were cast extremely well.

      I love both book series, but my money is on the Harry Potter movie coming out ahead. Twilight the movie is not even in the same class.

  23. New Moon will most definitely be at the top, but will it be #1, don’t know. There are a lot of great movies coming out this summer, so if not #1, it will be in the top 5. I know that I am sure to see it several times just like I did Twilight. I actually think this one will be even better.

  24. That is hard to say. The Twilight fandom is still widely growing, so there will probally be more fans than ever to go see New Moon. But Harry Potter will be a serious competer to fight. I mean seriously, did any of you see that new HP trailer? Looking like a serious fight out there.

    New Moon will make top 5. No matter what we all know that. But for the #1 spot that is something we all have to wait and see, because that’s towards the end of the year, and we have a while for that.

  25. A very interesting question. Was Twilight the highest netting movie of 2008? I think it might have been. I hope they don’t lose any of the natural, honest energy of Twilight in New Moon, but I wouldn’t bet on it. It will be big, number one would be great. But will fans see it multiple times because it has a certain something they’ve never seen on film?

    I sure would be interested in more info on the money aspects of the Twilight series. How much did the stars make for their roles, how much will they be making in the next movies. Do any of them get a percentage of profits? How much is being spent on making New Moon, did they product placementize it? That would be interesting info and it has to be out there somewhere.

    • BooksRCrazy says:

      Top grossing movies of 2008 (Domestic)

      1. The Dark Knight – 533 Million
      2. Iron Man ——– 318 Million
      3. Indiana Jones 4 – 317 Million
      4. Hancock ——— 227 Million
      5. WALL-E ———- 223 Million
      6. Kung Fu Panda — 215 Million
      **7. Twilight —— 191 Million**

  26. I’m not sure if New Moon will get to be #1 but of course it will get big! but i kind of doubt that it will get bigger than twilight – even though there’s many more fans after the movie was released, but what do i know? anyway it will be a big thing, but again… not #1

  27. My guess is all it will take to stop the Twilight phenomenon is for them to show the usual Hollywood lack of respect for an average female character and try to “upgrade” Bella. Or if they over fashionize the wardrobe since women want to see the adventures of Bella, not a fashion show. Or if they revert to that Hollywood kubuki style of photographing women…the actresses strike a pose in their fashion costume and the camera pans them close up and of course meanwhile the male characters act in a natural manner. Or if they sell out characters to product placement (remember the lingerie fashion show that took over the female alien in “Men in Black 2″)or write in random off topic product placement scenes. Any of these Hollywood habits will drop the Twilight saga dead in it’s tracks. And all of them are habitual Hollywood behaviors.

    • Subliminal messages:
      Transformers has also capitalized in marketing techniques. According to Wikipedia “Michael Bay directed tie-in commercials for General Motors, Burger King and PepsiCo, while props — including the Camaro used for Bumblebee..”
      I know the movie is evolves around cars, but it didn’t have to FEEL like a car commercial. Did they really have to change Bumble Bee to a camaro, he’s supposed to be a VW bug…err!!

      I’m hoping Twilight doesn’t go too “Hollywood” to.

  28. Hey Twifriends, love both Potter and the Cullens!!! Cant wait 2 see both..I have even bigger news friends…….I just got my HOW TO BE soundtrack in the mail today!!!!!!!YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.Didnt win the poster though.Have to go now, got to listen to it .lol

  29. i don’t know if NM would be number one. Twilight did pretty well. But Harry Potter has been going for longer and A LOT of people have been waiting desperately for the half blood prince (i know i can’t wait to see it) The same amount of people will go see NM because it’s their favourite book being brought to life! I just hope that it will be a lot better than twilight because i was kinda disappointed in how so much seemed to be missing. Don’t get me wrong it was good in its own way i just thought more things should have been in their with more detail e.g. Jaspers talent.

  30. Well, I’m definitely going to both… But I’m placing my bets on Harry Potter.

  31. I think New Moon will hit the Top 5. Twilight fans proved with the first movie that they will repeatedly show up in force and support the flick without asking questions, even it is one of the worst-made movies of the year. The big thing the Saga movies need to focus on now is A) making a truly good film, and B) making a good film that non-Twihards can still enjoy. Reaching beyond the established fan base is now the biggest challenge for the flick.

  32. What is with all of this Negativity? New Moon , Harry Potter , Transformers 2 and many other films will all be great this year. Who cares who is number “1″ just as long as these films all make money and please the fans. I personally plan on watching NEW MOON at least 10 times or more…so I guess you know where my money is going in November?..lol

  33. I think New Moon will do well, but it doesn’t stand a chance against Harry Potter and Transformers, especially HP. Half Blood Prince is going to be released in the summer when more people are looking for movies to watch, and it generally appeals to more people than does Twilight. I think the second Transformers will be pretty successful as well, but HBP was recently moved to a Wednesday so as to get a head start for the weekend box office, so Transformers probably won’t get the top spot that weekend. I personally plan to see all three in theaters, so I won’t really contribute to any cause in the end. I’ve been so psyched for HBP since the final trailer was released last week… O.O

  34. As much as I’d love it to be the number 1 film….not a chance! True Twilight grossed a lot of money…near $400 million worldwide but Harry Potter’s box office numbers have so far surpassed that by a relatively large stretch. There’s no doubt that New Moon will draw in a more widespread audience and generate more profit than Twilight…but it’s chances of being the number 1 film of 2009 are fairly slim!

    • starknightcullen says:

      Im not suree about mi comment kay i lovelove love the saga but no offence the movie sucked compared to harry potter movies of course ill watch it a million times still but for ex. if im not a fan i wudnt come back cause of bad graphics.secondly,a lot of ppl hve been hooked with hp for years now and the trailer looked totes awesome but i dont think the NM ‘s not gonna be #1 this years cause of all the great movies coming out

  35. i would love it if New Moon would become #1 but i seriously doubt it with Harry Potter coming out
    and i can understand how english films have more competition from local movies
    i’m german and i think there are a lot of people and the numbers are growing who don’t like watching dubbed movies because most of the time it sounds horribly fake and hearing the same voices with completely different characters is just irritating!!!! unfortunately in most smaller cities they don’t show the original at all or very rarely especially indie films =(

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